Iran Says the Strait of Hormuz Is Closed — The U.S. Military Says 55 Ships Just Sailed Through It

Iran’s joint military command announced on Saturday, June 20, that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s seaborne oil passes — citing continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon as a violation of a memorandum of understanding signed between Washington and Tehran earlier that week. U.S. Central Command immediately disputed the claim, reporting that 55 commercial vessels successfully transited the strait and more than 17 million barrels of oil moved through the waterway without disruption. President Trump separately threatened to impose U.S. tolls on the shipping lane if a final deal with Iran is not ultimately reached [1].

Vice President JD Vance flew to Bürgenstock, Switzerland, on Sunday, June 21, accompanied by presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and White House adviser Jared Kushner, to begin technical-level negotiations with an Iranian delegation led by Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Pakistan’s foreign ministry confirmed the talks, with Qatar co-mediating [3, 4]. The discussions seek to convert the 60-day memorandum of understanding into a binding agreement covering Iran’s nuclear program and an end to the war in Lebanon [3].

Why It Sucks:

Conservatives

• Maximum pressure brought Iran to the table. Getting Tehran’s parliamentary speaker and foreign minister to sit across from a U.S. vice president is something no previous administration managed, and it happened because Trump combined military force with a clear diplomatic off-ramp [4, 6].
• Iran’s Strait closure was theater, not action. CENTCOM’s real-time data — 55 ships, 17 million barrels — proved that Iran’s announcement was a bluff designed to extract concessions, and Washington called it [1].
• A nuclear-plus-Lebanon deal would be genuinely historic. The 60-day MOU framework now being finalized could simultaneously end Iran’s enrichment program and the Lebanon war, an outcome that eluded every prior diplomatic effort [3].

Progressives

• Iran learned the Strait is its best leverage. By threatening closure and watching the Trump team rush to Switzerland to negotiate, Tehran established that it can extract concessions simply by rattling energy markets — regardless of whether the threat is real [1, 5].
• The deal’s critical variable isn’t in U.S. hands. Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon are already violating the MOU’s core precondition, and the Trump administration has no visible mechanism to stop an allied government from blowing up its own diplomatic framework [2, 3].
• Political operators are handling arms-control talks. Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff are political figures, not career nonproliferation experts; the technical complexity of nuclear verification and ceasefire enforcement requires institutional expertise this delegation visibly lacks [4].

Global Shipping Industry

• Contradictory government claims are a crisis of their own. Shipping companies cannot route tankers or lock in insurance rates based on diametrically opposed statements from Iran and CENTCOM; the uncertainty itself is a cost even when the Strait remains physically open [1, 5].
• Every closure announcement spikes war-risk insurance premiums. Tanker traffic had rebounded sharply after the original MOU was signed, but each new closure threat resets insurance markets regardless of whether Iranian patrol boats actually block ships [1, 3].
• Trump’s toll threat adds a fourth source of disruption. Proposing U.S.-imposed tolls on the world’s most critical energy chokepoint as diplomatic leverage treats the global supply chain as a bargaining chip — layering regulatory uncertainty on top of military uncertainty for carriers with no political recourse [1].

Sources & Citations:

[1] CNN: Iran and US make opposing claims on Strait of Hormuz ahead of talks in Switzerland
[2] NPR: Iran says Strait of Hormuz shut as U.S.-Iran talks set for Sunday in Switzerland
[3] PBS NewsHour: U.S.-Iran talks to begin Sunday in Switzerland as Tehran closes the strait over Lebanon fighting
[4] ABC News: Vance meets Iranian negotiators in Switzerland to work on details of deal
[5] CNBC: Vance arrives in Switzerland for talks with Iranian negotiators amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
[6] Fox News: Vance travels to Switzerland for talks as Iran negotiators arrive