First Iranian Tankers Break Through Hormuz, but the Deal They’re Sailing Under Is Already in Dispute

For the first time since a U.S. naval blockade began approximately two months ago, Iranian crude oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz. The ship-tracking service TankerTrackers confirmed on June 17 using satellite imagery that at least three vessels — including two National Iranian Tanker Company supertankers identified as the DIONA and HERO2, both under U.S. sanctions — had cleared the U.S. Navy’s blockade perimeter carrying an estimated combined total of roughly 4.8 million barrels of Iranian crude [1].

The movement followed a preliminary agreement signed June 15 by President Donald Trump and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, under which the United States authorized an end to its naval blockade in exchange for Iran extending a ceasefire on all fronts and agreeing to 60 days of nuclear negotiations, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for Switzerland on June 19 [2, 4]. Significant uncertainty surrounds the deal’s durability. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei publicly disputed the Trump administration’s framing, stating Iran intends to charge “fees in exchange for the services that are provided” for Hormuz transits — rejecting the term “tolls” but asserting a payment mechanism that contradicts Washington’s account [2]. Major commercial shipping operators said they had not yet received enough detail about the deal’s terms to resume normal operations through the waterway, and analysts warned that full oil-market normalization could take weeks or months [3, 7].

Why It Sucks:

Conservatives

• Sixty days of talks is not a nuclear deal. The agreement schedules negotiations rather than securing verifiable concessions — Iran pockets immediate economic relief from the blockade’s end while its nuclear program, the source of its leverage, remains fully intact and unverified [2].
• Iran is already rewriting the deal’s terms. Within 48 hours of the agreement’s announcement, Tehran’s Foreign Ministry asserted it will charge passage fees on Hormuz transits, directly contradicting the Trump administration’s account and suggesting Iran views the deal as a floor to negotiate from, not a ceiling [3, 7].
• Sanctioned tankers moving first undermines U.S. credibility. The first vessels to exit the blockade — DIONA and HERO2 — are both under U.S. sanctions, raising immediate questions about whether the enforcement mechanisms written into the deal are substantive or cosmetic [1, 2].

Progressives

• This deal ends a crisis Trump’s own policies worsened. The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement, the “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign, and backing for Israeli strikes in Lebanon all contributed to the conditions that led Iran to close the Strait — the celebrated “win” is recovery from a partly self-inflicted wound [4].
• Iran’s nuclear program advances unchecked during negotiations. A 60-day negotiating window is too short and too vague to produce verifiable denuclearization; critics argue the pattern resembles Trump’s 2018–2019 North Korea summits, which generated diplomatic optics while the weapons program continued [2, 3].
• G7 timing looks more like optics than diplomacy. The deal’s announcement arrived perfectly timed for a summit headline, which progressives argue reflects how Trump’s foreign policy prioritizes domestic news-cycle management over durable, verifiable international agreements [4, 5].

Global Shipping and Energy Markets

• The biggest carriers aren’t moving yet. Major commercial shipping companies have publicly stated they need more operational detail before resuming normal Hormuz routes — the first vessels through were Iranian state-owned tankers under sanctions, not freely tradeable commercial cargo [1, 7].
• Iran’s fee claim creates dangerous legal ambiguity. International maritime law classifies the Strait of Hormuz as international waters subject to innocent passage rights; Tehran’s insistence on charging passage fees could generate insurance complications, legal challenges, and precedent-setting demands from other states controlling strategic chokepoints [3, 7].
• Oil-market normalization could take months, not days. Even with the physical blockade removed, the required tanker repositioning, insurance re-rating, buyer contracting, and sanctions review processes mean the deal’s headline will arrive in markets well before any actual supply recovery does [3].

Sources & Citations:

[1] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Iran’s First Oil Exports In Months Leave Strait Of Hormuz, Says Monitor
[2] PBS NewsHour: Iran and U.S. reach an initial deal to extend the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz but challenges remain
[3] PBS NewsHour: Even with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, it could take weeks or months for oil to fully flow
[4] Al Jazeera: US says Iran signed deal to end war, ships moving through Strait of Hormuz
[5] Newsweek: US Blockade Over? Iranians Ships Sail Out of Strait of Hormuz
[6] CNN: Trump and Vance virtually sign US-Iran agreement
[7] Argus Media: Hormuz tanker traffic unchanged after US-Iran deal