New Poll: Trump Hits a New Low, and Nobody Feels Good About It

A new NBC News poll released Monday found that 43% of registered voters approve of President Trump’s job performance while 55% disapprove, the lowest approval mark of his second term. The same survey, conducted May 29 through June 7 among 2,400 registered voters with a 2-point margin of error, found Democrats holding a 5-point edge on the generic congressional ballot, with 49% of respondents preferring Democratic control of Congress compared to 44% for Republicans [1, 2]. Roughly two-thirds of respondents said the administration has fallen short on the economy, cost of living and looking out for the middle class, while more than half said it has fallen short on foreign policy [1].

Why It Sucks:

Republicans

• One poll snapshot isn’t a verdict. GOP strategists point to other surveys and question whether NBC’s sample oversamples Democratic-leaning voters [1].
• Cost-of-living anger predates this administration. Republicans argue affordability frustration reflects lingering inflation rather than current policy choices [1].
• Five months is a long time in politics. Party officials note plenty of runway remains to shift numbers before voters actually cast ballots [2].

Democrats

• This is vindication for the midterm message. Democrats see the 5-point generic-ballot lead as proof their cost-of-living attacks are landing with voters [1, 2].
• Two-thirds say the middle class is being failed. Democrats treat that number as a mandate to keep affordability as the central 2026 campaign issue [1].
• Foreign policy doubts add fuel. With more than half disapproving of foreign policy handling, Democrats see another front to campaign on heading into November [1].

Independent and Swing Voters

• Neither party is fixing the actual problem. Independents drove much of the approval decline without necessarily rallying behind Democrats, reflecting broad disillusionment with both parties on affordability [2].
• Polls flatten real frustrations into partisan scorekeeping. Swing voters often say they’re reacting to grocery and housing prices, not party loyalty, and resent being read as a partisan signal [1].
• Late-breaking voters could swing everything. With five months until the midterms, undecided independents leave both parties unable to bank on today’s numbers [2].

Sources & Citations:

[1] NBC News: Poll: Democrats maintain an edge in the fight for Congress as Trump gets poor marks
[2] Newsweek: Trump’s Approval Hits Second-Term Low, New NBC News Poll Shows