Supergirl Belly-Flops at $40M While Toy Story 5 Dominates With $160M — And DC Has No Answers

Warner Bros.’ Supergirl, the second film in director James Gunn’s rebooted DC Universe, opened in theaters on June 26, 2026, collecting $7.8 million in Thursday night previews before landing at an estimated $40 million for its domestic opening weekend [1, 2]. That result lands well below pre-release tracking that had originally projected a $55 million to $60 million domestic debut, and it marks a sharp step down from the numbers posted by Gunn’s first DCU entry, Superman, which launched to substantially higher global returns in 2025 [2, 5]. Milly Alcock stars as Kara Zor-El, and the film faced direct competition from Toy Story 5, which claimed the year’s biggest debut at $160 million domestic and an estimated $312 million globally — the strongest three-day opening of 2026 [2].

Critics awarded Supergirl a 57% rating on Rotten Tomatoes at launch, with the consensus broadly crediting Alcock as a standout while faulting the screenplay [3]. Months before release, Alcock drew significant media attention after telling Vanity Fair that “simply existing as a woman in that space is something that people comment on”; when the remark generated backlash, she reiterated her position, and tracking continued to soften in the weeks before release [4]. Industry analysts have since projected that, factoring in the film’s reported production budget and global marketing spend, Supergirl could record a total loss approaching $200 million [4, 5].

Why It Sucks:

DC Fans

• Great casting, catastrophic screenplay. Critics and audiences broadly agree that Milly Alcock is the film’s lone genuine strength — but Variety’s review called the movie “so flat it’s super-horrendous,” and for fans who waited years for Kara Zor-El to headline a DCU entry, watching the character’s debut stumble on writing failures rather than miscasting is a specific kind of misery [3].
• DCU momentum is already eroding after two films. Superman opened to massive enthusiasm and strong returns in 2025; a $40 million domestic debut in the sequel represents a significant backward slide for a franchise that needs consecutive wins to build the audience trust Marvel spent more than a decade cultivating [2, 5].
• The scheduling choice was inexcusable. Releasing a superhero film with mixed reviews and unresolved press-tour controversy on the same weekend as the year’s most anticipated animated sequel was a correctable error — and it now saddles Supergirl with a “bomb” label that distorts how the film’s actual problems will be understood going forward [2].

Women in Hollywood Advocates

• A candid female lead’s interview became a box-office liability. When Alcock told Vanity Fair that simply existing as a woman in superhero spaces invites public commentary, the resulting media cycle materially softened tracking — a dynamic advocates argue would not have followed a male lead who made a comparably candid remark about his own industry experience [4].
• The script is the culprit, but the actress takes the heat. Critics are nearly unanimous that the screenplay is the film’s primary failure, yet the dominant post-release narrative has tied the soft opening to Alcock’s press tour rather than to studio decisions — a pattern advocates argue is applied disproportionately to women leading franchise tentpoles [3, 4].
• Underperformance gets gendered in ways that close doors. Industry observers have watched multiple female-led superhero films face post-mortem scrutiny focused on the lead actor’s behavior rather than structural production choices — a cycle that, advocates contend, makes each successive greenlight harder to secure, regardless of whether the lead’s performance is the issue [4, 5].

Warner Bros. and DC Studios Investors

• A $40 million domestic opening on a nine-figure budget is a financial emergency. With production costs reported in the $170 million range and global marketing spend on top, a projected $200 million total loss calls the financial architecture of the DCU reboot into question before the franchise has reached its third film [2, 4].
• Competing with Toy Story 5 was a scheduling choice that can’t be undone. Opening against the year’s most dominant family release — which grossed $312 million globally in its first three days — guaranteed that Supergirl would be reported as an underperformer relative to the same weekend rather than evaluated on its own terms, damaging franchise perception in ways that outlast the box office weekend itself [2].
• The DCU has no cushion for consecutive stumbles. Marvel built years of goodwill before it could absorb a misfire; Gunn’s reboot is only two films deep with a nine-figure projected loss attached to the second one, leaving streaming partners, merchandise licensees, and distribution partners with limited runway before they begin reassessing their commitments [2, 4].

Sources & Citations:

[1] Variety: Box Office: ‘Supergirl’ Makes $7.8 Million in Previews
[2] Deadline: Box Office: ‘Toy Story 5’ Crossing $300M U.S., ‘Supergirl’ $40M Opening
[3] Variety: ‘Supergirl’ Review — Milly Alcock Takes Charge in a Dystopian Superhero Movie So Flat It’s Super-Horrendous
[4] OutKick: After Questionable Remarks From Star Milly Alcock, New Tracking Shows ‘Supergirl’ on Track for $200M Loss
[5] Eastern Herald: Supergirl Opens With 57% Reviews and Box Office Headwinds, Milly Alcock the Standout