Trump Flies to NATO Summit to Squeeze Allies on Defense Spending — With Ukraine’s Future Hanging in the Balance

President Donald Trump departed for Ankara, Turkey on Monday for the annual NATO summit, where his primary agenda is enforcing the defense spending pledges that NATO member nations made under pressure from his administration in 2025. Trump is scheduled to hold separate bilateral meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa during the two-day summit at the Beştepe Presidential Compound. The White House framed the Zelensky session as a chance for the two leaders “to talk about how we can end the war” — with Trump described as feeling “a sense of urgency” to bring the Russia-Ukraine conflict, now in its fifth year, to a close [1]. Following the Zelensky meeting, Trump plans to call Russian President Vladimir Putin, establishing a back-to-back diplomatic sequence that could shape the war’s next phase [2].

The summit arrives as NATO allies have significantly increased defense spending under Trump’s sustained pressure, but as European governments also grapple with uncertainty about U.S. reliability following the Iran war’s depletion of American munitions stockpiles. Multiple allied governments are preparing to press Trump for specific security guarantees for Ukraine while privately managing what their own officials describe as the challenge of handling an unpredictable American partner [3].

Why It Sucks:

Democrats and Progressive Critics

• Trump may trade Ukraine’s sovereignty for a deal he can claim as a win. Democrats warn that Trump’s back-to-back Zelensky-then-Putin diplomatic sequence previews a settlement process in which Ukraine is pressured to accept Russian territorial gains in exchange for a ceasefire Trump can claim as a diplomatic achievement. They point to Trump’s historical praise of Putin and argue that a president who frames ending the war as urgent — on his own timeline — may push Zelensky toward an agreement that legitimizes Russian aggression [1, 3].
• Weakening NATO commitments risks decades of security architecture. Progressive and establishment critics argue that Trump’s transactional approach to the alliance — framing it as a protection arrangement rather than a mutual defense commitment — is eroding the credibility that has deterred conflict in Europe since World War II. A NATO reduced to a billing dispute makes conflict more likely, not less [2, 3].
• Depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles undermine the credibility of American commitments. The Iran war consumed more than half of several critical American munitions stockpiles, with full replenishment potentially years away. Democrats argue that Trump’s ability to credibly commit to European security — including Article 5 of the NATO treaty — is structurally constrained by weakened American military capacity at precisely the moment he is demanding that allies depend on U.S. defense [2, 4].

America First Republicans

• European nations have freeloaded on American defense for decades — that ends now. Trump’s base views the NATO summit as a debt-collection mission, not a diplomatic courtesy. European nations have long spent far below NATO’s 2% of GDP defense target while relying on American protection. Enforcing the spending pledges is, in the America First view, exactly what a president who prioritizes American taxpayers should do [1, 2].
• Ending the Ukraine war quickly serves American interests and saves lives. America First conservatives argue that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has already cost the United States enormous resources — in weapons, diplomatic capital, and strategic attention — without a clear American interest at stake. Trump’s willingness to engage directly with Putin to end the war is not weakness; it is pragmatism in service of American interests and the lives of both Ukrainian and Russian civilians [1, 3].
• Rebuilding American stockpiles must come before new foreign commitments. With the U.S. military having expended large portions of its Tomahawk, Patriot, and THAAD inventories in the Iran war, America First Republicans argue the last thing Washington should be doing at a NATO summit is reaffirming open-ended European defense commitments it may be unable to honor. The administration should be demanding allied self-sufficiency before any further American obligations are renewed [2, 4].

Bipartisan National Security Hawks

• Trump must not allow Ukraine to be pressured into an unjust settlement. Republican and Democratic hawks alike warn that any deal compelling Ukraine to formally cede Russian-occupied territory sets a catastrophic precedent — that military aggression against a sovereign nation can be legitimized through negotiated facts on the ground. They argue NATO’s credibility, and the security of every nation on the alliance’s eastern flank, depends on Ukraine emerging from any ceasefire with its sovereignty intact [1, 3].
• Spending pledges must be concrete and verified, not aspirational photo-opportunity commitments. Bipartisan hawks applaud the pressure on allies to meet spending targets but warn that promises made at summit events are worthless without binding agreements and independent verification. Trump’s approach, they argue, has historically produced press conference wins but insufficient follow-through — and the defense capacity of Europe is too consequential to be resolved in a communiqué [2, 5].
• The Zelensky-first, Putin-call-after sequencing inherently disadvantages Ukraine. National security analysts from both parties argue that meeting Zelensky before calling Putin structurally disadvantages Ukraine: Trump arrives at the Putin call having already heard Ukrainian positions, while Russia gets to respond last and shape the final impression. They warn this sequencing produces pressure on Ukraine to make concessions rather than pressure on Russia to withdraw [1, 3].

Sources & Citations:

[1] NPR: Trump won spending promises from NATO last year. This week, he’ll try to enforce them
[2] CNBC: ‘NATO 3.0’: Defense spending pledges face the Trump test
[3] Washington Post: After America’s 250th, Trump will test how far he can push NATO allies
[4] Bloomberg: Trump Headed to NATO Summit to Meet Zelenskyy, Face Wary Allies
[5] ABC News: US taking stock of NATO as Trump heads to Turkey for summit