Trump “Semi-Negotiates” With Iran While Hormuz Blockade Chokes Global Oil Supply

President Trump said Sunday that the United States is “low-keying” negotiations with Iran, telling Axios in a phone interview, “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” Trump added that Tehran “is in very bad shape” economically and cannot afford to pay its soldiers [1]. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, has remained largely closed to tankers since fighting resumed in July, unraveling a ceasefire agreement reached in June. Iran has submitted a list of demands before it will reopen the strait: an end to U.S. attacks on Iran and its regional allies, an end to the naval blockade of Iranian ports, withdrawal of U.S. military forces from the region, removal of sanctions, unfreezing of Iranian assets, and compensation for war damage [2].

Oil markets reacted Sunday after Tehran said it was not currently engaged in negotiations with Washington. Brent crude rose about 1.2% to $84.58 a barrel, while U.S. crude climbed roughly 1.1% to $79.28 a barrel [1].

Why It Sucks:

Iran Hawks

• Economic pressure is finally working. Hawks argue Trump’s “watching them suffer” posture is exactly the leverage needed, pointing to Iran’s soldiers reportedly going unpaid amid runaway inflation as proof the blockade is squeezing the regime [1].
• Iran’s demand list proves desperation, not strength. A wish list demanding sanctions relief, asset unfreezing and war reparations before even discussing reopening a critical waterway reads to hawks as a regime negotiating from weakness, not a partner that should be rewarded with concessions [2].
• Half-measures risk squandering the advantage. Some hawks worry that “semi-negotiating” signals hesitation rather than resolve, and that Tehran could use any lull to rebuild military capacity while the U.S. debates its next move [1].

Antiwar Progressives

• A war with no endpoint and no vote. Progressives argue the conflict has dragged on for months without congressional authorization, and Trump’s own admission that he’s merely “watching” rather than actively pursuing peace suggests no strategy exists to end it [1].
• Blockades and demands spiral toward permanent conflict. Iran’s list of preconditions, met with an American posture of deliberate inaction, looks to critics like a standoff neither side has an incentive to de-escalate, all while ordinary Iranians and the broader region absorb the consequences [2].
• Diplomacy is being treated as a bargaining chip, not a goal. Framing negotiations as something to dole out only once an adversary is sufficiently weakened, rather than pursuing them in good faith, strikes antiwar voices as prolonging suffering for leverage rather than resolving the conflict [1].

American Consumers and Small Businesses

• Gas prices are rising with no relief in sight. A continued Hormuz shutdown pushed Brent crude up 1.2% and U.S. crude up 1.1% in a single day, a trend that translates directly into higher pump prices for commuters and higher fuel costs for small businesses already stretched thin [1].
• Nobody in Washington is prioritizing the price at the pump. With a fifth of global oil supply choked off and the administration openly describing its approach as “semi-negotiating,” consumers feel like their household budgets are collateral damage in a geopolitical waiting game [1].
• Uncertainty makes planning impossible. Without clarity on whether the strait reopens in weeks or months, businesses reliant on fuel and shipping costs can’t plan inventory or pricing, compounding economic anxiety that has nothing to do with ideology [2].

Sources & Citations:

[1] Al Jazeera: Iran war updates: Trump says US ‘only semi-negotiating’ with Tehran
[2] CNN: August 9, 2026 – Pentagon memo to defense companies, Houthi attack on Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery